The data shows that if Trump wanted easy wins on crime, he’d start in red states
The National Guard is going on tour. First to Los Angeles, then DC, and now Chicago.
It’s a blue state special.
Blue because those are the only states Trump is sending the guard and special because of the relatively unprecedented way he's doing it. For instance, it’s “the first time in 60 years that a President has called up National Guard troops to a state without a request from its governor.”
But let’s assume, for the sake of argument, that this isn’t about a demented lust for “payback” and power. Let’s pretend that Trump is making a “good faith” effort to forcefully reform this country’s wretched hives of scum and villainy.
If that were true, he’d want to find a place that has three things:
- Plenty of crime
- Political will to fight it with unconventional methods.
- A friendly governor who won’t get in the way.
Fortunately, there’s some data for that. Here are the 25 most violent cities in America — plus how their states voted for president in 2024 and the party of their governors.
Violent Crime Rate (2024)
| Rank | City | State | Violent Crime Rate | 2024 | Gov |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Memphis | TN | 2501.28 | R 🟥 | R 🟥 |
| 2 | Oakland | CA | 1925.33 | D 🟦 | D 🟦 |
| 3 | Detroit | MI | 1781.25 | R 🟥 | D 🟦 |
| 4 | Little Rock | AR | 1672.00 | R 🟥 | R 🟥 |
| 5 | Baltimore | MD | 1606.16 | D 🟦 | D 🟦 |
| 6 | Cleveland | OH | 1561.08 | R 🟥 | R 🟥 |
| 7 | Kansas City | MO | 1547.11 | R 🟥 | R 🟥 |
| 8 | Milwaukee | WI | 1430.90 | R 🟥 | D 🟦 |
| 9 | Pueblo | CO | 1424.12 | D 🟦 | D 🟦 |
| 10 | St. Louis | MO | 1367.14 | R 🟥 | R 🟥 |
| 11 | Lansing | MI | 1345.06 | R 🟥 | D 🟦 |
| 12 | Peoria | IL | 1344.86 | D 🟦 | D 🟦 |
| 13 | Dayton | OH | 1339.20 | R 🟥 | R 🟥 |
| 14 | Birmingham | AL | 1246.56 | R 🟥 | R 🟥 |
| 15 | Shreveport | LA | 1228.50 | R 🟥 | R 🟥 |
| 16 | Evansville | IN | 1206.17 | R 🟥 | R 🟥 |
| 17 | Albuquerque | NM | 1181.76 | D 🟦 | D 🟦 |
| 18 | Springfield | MO | 1178.11 | R 🟥 | R 🟥 |
| 19 | Minneapolis | MN | 1160.22 | R 🟥 | D 🟦 |
| 20 | Houston | TX | 1148.17 | R 🟥 | R 🟥 |
| 21 | Stockton | CA | 1145.83 | D 🟦 | D 🟦 |
| 22 | Beaumont | TX | 1137.26 | R 🟥 | R 🟥 |
| 23 | Nashville | TN | 1124.06 | R 🟥 | R 🟥 |
| 24 | Rockford | IL | 1079.98 | D 🟦 | D 🟦 |
| 25 | Lafayette | LA | 1066.10 | R 🟥 | R 🟥 |
| … | … | … | … | … | … |
| 36 | Washington | DC | 925.88 | D 🟦 | D 🟦 |
| 120 | Chicago | IL | 539.85 | D 🟦 | D 🟦 |
FBI’s Crime Data Explorer. City Agency (CIUS Table 8).
Retrieved September 2, 2025.
The violent crime rate is equal to reported violent crimes per 100,000 residents. This only includes cities that have populations over 100,000.
This is really good news if you happen to be a benevolent president in the Republican Party who is hell-bent on squashing crime. Over two-thirds (17) of the top 25 most violent cities are in Trump states. Thirteen of those are run by Republican governors. In other words: plenty of friendly turf to pilot a crime crusade.
He could start in Shreveport and have Speaker Mike Johnson lead the troops back home to clean house. Or he could really make a splash in a smaller pond like Beaumont, TX or Evansville, IN, which both have populations around 100,000. Then, once he’s proven himself in these “laborites of autocracy,” it should be no problem for a salesman of Trump's caliber to get buy-in from the bigger, bluer cities. Now that’s federalism in action!
But what about all that murder?
Trump’s pretense for sending the Guard to Chicago is that it is the “MURDER CAPITAL OF THE WORLD.” He made this declaration after more than 50 people were shot over Labor Day weekend. And yes, Chicago does have a lot of murders. The most of any state, in fact—that is until you adjust for population at which point the city barely cracks the Top 25.
Murder Rates 2024
| Rank | City | State | Murder Rate | 2024 | Gov. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Birmingham | AL | 58.85 | R 🟥 | R 🟥 |
| 2 | St. Louis | MO | 54.09 | R 🟥 | R 🟥 |
| 3 | Memphis | TN | 40.61 | R 🟥 | R 🟥 |
| 4 | Baltimore | MD | 34.77 | D 🟦 | D 🟦 |
| 5 | Detroit | MI | 31.17 | R 🟥 | D 🟦 |
| 6 | Cleveland | OH | 30.05 | R 🟥 | R 🟥 |
| 7 | Dayton | OH | 29.66 | R 🟥 | R 🟥 |
| 8 | Kansas City | MO | 27.56 | R 🟥 | R 🟥 |
| 9 | Shreveport | LA | 26.84 | R 🟥 | R 🟥 |
| 10 | Washington | DC | 25.49 | D 🟦 | D 🟦 |
| 11 | Milwaukee | WI | 23.91 | R 🟥 | D 🟦 |
| 12 | South Fulton | GA | 22.23 | R 🟥 | R 🟥 |
| 13 | Cincinnati | OH | 21.82 | R 🟥 | R 🟥 |
| 14 | Louisville Metro | KY | 21.72 | R 🟥 | D 🟦 |
| 15 | Indianapolis | IN | 19.98 | R 🟥 | R 🟥 |
| 16 | Oakland | CA | 18.62 | D 🟦 | D 🟦 |
| 17 | Albuquerque | NM | 18.43 | D 🟦 | D 🟦 |
| 18 | Montgomery | AL | 18.07 | R 🟥 | R 🟥 |
| 19 | Minneapolis | MN | 17.95 | R 🟥 | D 🟦 |
| 20 | Lancaster | CA | 17.68 | D 🟦 | D 🟦 |
| 21 | Little Rock | AR | 17.63 | R 🟥 | R 🟥 |
| 22 | Hartford | CT | 17.55 | D 🟦 | D 🟦 |
| 23 | Chicago | IL | 17.47 | D 🟦 | D 🟦 |
| 24 | Pueblo | CO | 17.15 | D 🟦 | D 🟦 |
| 25 | North Charleston | SC | 17.00 | R 🟥 | R 🟥 |
FBI Crime Data Explorer. City Agency (CIUS Table 8).
Retrieved September 2, 2025.
The murder rate is equal to reported murders and non-negligent manslaughters per 100,000 residents. This only includes cities that have populations over 100,000.
This is even better news for the Trump regime. Because seven of the Top 10 murderiest cities are conveniently located in Trump-friendly states with Republican governors. This is also true for more than half (13) of the Top 25. Just think of all that preventable murder!
But Chicago? Chicago is blue. The state is Blue. The governor is blue. The Cubbies are blue. And that’s really the point.
This isn’t a crackdown on crime; it’s a crackdown on enemies.
Crime is down and has been steady since 2011
And here’s the kicker: violent crime in America is at a two-decade low. The rate in 2024 is half of what it was in 1992. And it’s been stable since 2011 — even if headlines scream otherwise.
Crime data is complicated, imperfect, and often incomplete. (We could get into the specifics of how it’s reported, but I respect your time too much.)
In the end, there will always be crime to fight, and there will always be arguments about how to fight it.
But when you hear Trump say, “I’m not a dictator. I just know how to stop crime,” remember this: America’s cities aren’t being taken over by crime. They’re being taken over by a criminal.
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